Challenges:
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Oil companies are under pressure to prepare for a possible low-carbon future.
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There is a fear of being too late to embrace newer energy sources, matched by equally high risks in moving too fast
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In such a scenario, oil companies are likely to take a two-pronged approach: diversify into new sources of energy while capitalizing on growth opportunities in conventional forms of energy
India’s scenario:
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A closer look at India’s energy mix reflects a clear trend towards gas and renewable. But there is no imminent danger to demand for oil, forecast to grow at least until 2040
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Today, the major fossil fuels account for more than 90% of India’s total primary commercial energy supply (TPCES).
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At present, India’s import dependence in the oil and gas sector is significant and the PM has set a target to reduce dependence on crude imports by 10% by 2022
How India should react?
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India needs to be aggressive in looking out for the best prices and competing supply sources
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With 3.14 million sq. km of potential reserves lying unexplored until 2016, India’s potential in the oil and gas sector is immense and there exists vast headroom for new discoveries
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Another area that calls for attention is enhanced oil recovery. With the global average recovery factor for a typical oilfield being around 40%, a substantial amount of identified oil ends up as leftover despite existing production infrastructure
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There is a need to enhance recovery from oilfields to reduce import dependence
Refining and re-gassing:
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India has emerged as a refining hub in Asia, serving a massive domestic market for refined petroleum products and even exports
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Also, the government’s push towards a gas-based economy has given significant thrust to liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, given the low domestic natural gas output
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Both these elements present an opportunity for India’s downstream and midstream oil and gas sectors
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The key to enhancing efficiency lies in the optimum utilization of resources and adoption of the latest technologies
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Some of the key areas to focus in the mid- to long-term include enhancing
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the overall operational efficiency of plants,
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flexibility in refinery configuration,
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improving energy efficiency,
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upgrading the quality of fuel while upgrading facilities to produce BS-IV and BS-VI compliant fuels
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Sales and distribution network:
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With major fuels in India deregulated, retailers must focus on their sale and distribution networks. Similar efforts should be made for petrochemicals too
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Strengthening the sales and distribution network for petrochemicals will ease margin pressures for distributors, while ensuring reliable supply for small to mid-sized distributors
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The current distribution network is concentrated around a few producers, calling for the development of a strong network
The way forward
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To sum up, Indian stakeholders need to adopt an aggressive but cautious approach to fully harness the opportunity created as a result of changing dynamics in the global oil and gas sector