Summary:
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Recently there has been an increase in violence in Kashmir.
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This needs careful analysis to avoid the failure of the Kashmir Policy.
Background:
Several civilians and armed forces personnel have been killed by terrorists in a series of violent attacks in Kashmir. This has led to comparisons with the situation that existed during the 1990s and the early years of the 21st century. But one needs to have a look at the ground reality.
What is the ground reality?
After the abrogation of Article 370, there was silence and peace in Kashmir. But recent events have created an impression of increasing support to militancy.
What is the role of Pakistan and China in the violence in Kashmir?
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There has been an undeniable role of Pakistan in the violence in Kashmir. This is complicated by the fact that Kashmir is bordered by Afghanistan and China. The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has further strengthened the role of Pakistan.
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As India expands its role and world view, the threats from its competitors like China and Pakistan increase manifold.
How India can solve violence in Kashmir?
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Credible and quick intelligence: India needs a broader set of agencies than the current RAW, IB and National Security Council. This will:
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Prevent any miscalculation (As highlighted by America’s war on Iraq, where they failed to find any weapons of mass destruction),
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Predict the events of the future with precision,
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Bring lasting peace.
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Engage all segments of society and polity in reducing trust deficit.