Background:
- A brief analysis of the outcomes of the recent visits of Prime Minister and the changing dimensions of India’s foreign policy
Indo-US:
- The visit focused mainly on counter-terrorism and security co-operation and avoided the contentious trade related issues.
- The success in these two areas can be noticed by:
- The naming of the Hizbul Mujahedeen chief as a “specially designated global terrorist” and a “new consultation mechanism on domestic and international terrorist designations listing proposals”
- Confirmation of the sale of the Guardian Unmanned Aerial System to India.
Indo-Israel:
- First ever visit to Israel by an Indian PM
- Elevation of the India-Israel relationship to the level of a ‘strategic partnership’.
- The main focus of the visit was on defence cooperation, joint development of defence products and transfer of technology.
- Most of the agreements signed related to transfer of technology and innovative technology-related items and India expects to benefit substantially, considering that Israeli export rules are far more flexible than those of the U.S.
Some sticky points in Indo_Israel:
- India and Israel decided to set up a $40 million Innovation Fund to allow Indian and Israeli enterprises to develop innovative technologies and products for commercial applications.
- However, Israel-China comprehensive innovation partnership which has an outlay of $300 million clearly overshadows this.
- India and Israel also have differences over China’s BRI:(Belt and Road initiative) Israel is eager to participate in it, unlike India, and possibly views this as an opportunity to develop a project parallel to the Suez Canal.
- Both countries also expressed a strong commitment to combat terror. The reality, however, is that when the two countries speak of terrorism, they speak of very different things.
- Iran and Hezbollah are the main targets for Israel, which has little interest in the Afghan Taliban or Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba. For India, it is the latter that matters.
Indo-China-Pak:
- China is increasingly and aggressively expanding its political and economic presence in the East and Southeast Asia, South Asia and now slowly increasing its presence into West Asia.
- For instance, China’s influence in Iran is very high vis-a-vis that of India.
- Experts opine that, India, however has put up a courageous fight against China. It has not been ruffled either by BRI or Doklam standoff.
- Few other countries in Asia are, however willing to cooperate with China.
- A divided house in ASEAN with most countries in the region wanting to join China-based initiatives. Even in South Asia, despite India’s commanding presence, China has been successful in winning quite a few friends among India’s neighbours such as Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives.
- Pakistan continues to be a rogue state and its unrelenting stand to tackle terrorism has led to a virtual diplomatic standoff between India and Pakistan.
- As a consequence, India has been left with few options and this is leading to a diplomatic gridlock which does not augur well for India.
- Pakistan’s dependence on China is growing due formers own internal stresses.
- This is contributing to a strategic imbalance in the South Asian region, which is the main context in which Indian diplomacy needs to redraw its arc of influence.
The Russia factor:
- Russia is undergoing a strategic resurgence, sustained in good measure by the close relations recently established with China. Buoyed by developments in the Ukraine and Crimea, and the uncertainties surrounding U.S. commitment to NATO, the new Russia-China ‘strategic congruence’ is certain to impact Asia.
- At this juncture, India-Russia relations appear less robust than at any time in the past half century. India’s ‘Act East and Look West’ policies have given a new dimension to Indian diplomacy in both East and West Asia. However, diminishing diplomatic influence in the West Asian region vis-a-vis increasing influence of Russia and China is a cause of concern.
- The ‘Act East’ policy has produced better results. Closer relations with countries in East and South East Asia, especially Japan and Vietnam, are a positive development. However, in the Asia-Pacific, India has to contend with an increasingly assertive China. There is little evidence to show that India’s diplomatic manoeuvres individually, or with allies like Japan, have succeeded in keeping the Chinese juggernaut at bay — or for that matter provide an alternative to China in the Asia-Pacific.
- Indian diplomacy, therefore, needs a renewed strategy and also display still higher levels of sophistication to overcome the odds.
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