Ukraine crisis and its impact on the World order – UPSC GS2

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NOTE: We will keep updating this article as situation evolves.
Major outcomes:
  • USA is not reliable: Rapid withdrawal from Afghanistan and now lack of military support for Ukraine. Similar situation might arise for other countries like Taiwan, Japan, Indo-Pacific nations and even India.
  • Lack of coordinated approach from the west:
    • Beijing, France and Italy were reluctant in imposing SWIFT sanctions on Russia.
  • Energy dependence of Europe:
    • Many European countries have not voiced opinion against Russia due to their excessive dependence for their energy needs
    • EU imports 39% of its total gas imports and 30% of oil from Russia.
    • Central and Eastern European countries imports almost 100% gas from Russia.
  • Rise of  Beijing:
    • Conceding the defeat without even throwing up a fight has emboldened the Russia-China ‘axis’
    • The power has tilted in favour of these two powers defining a new international order.
    • China would be observing Russia’s military and tactic moves in this invasion and learn from it. It could prepare itself for all possible outcomes after analysing impacts of sanctions and military actions of west and Russia.
  • Impact on India’s Defence imports:
    • CAATSA waiver for S400 import from Russia could be impacted.
    • 60% of India’s defence imports of new and spare parts are from Russia.
    • Ukraine deal of upgrading 100 An-32 transport aircrafts of IAF is delayed.
  • Shift of Focus to Europe from Indo-Pacific:
    • This invasion will divert Europe’s attention to its neighbourhood and away from the Indo-Pacific and possibly delay its engagements with the Quad.
  • Worsening Semi-Conductor crisis:
    • 45%-54% of the world’s semiconductor grade neon comes from two Ukrainian companies, Ingas and Cryoin.
    • With Cryoin and Ingas side lined, the price of semiconductor-grade neon will inevitably increase as their rivals will need to increase output to meet growing demand.
  • Exposed ineffectiveness of UN and UNSC:
    • Ineffective diplomacy which could avoid war.
    • Russia acted unilaterally citing its security concerns.
    • US and West acted unilaterally to impose sanctions on Russia without any effort to cool down situation.
  • Nuclear safeguards overlooked:
    • Russia bombarded 2 nuclear power plants in Ukraine overlooking well established nuclear safeguards.
  • Use of non-state actors:
    • Russia using armed militia from Donbas region.
    • Ukraine has given arms to its civilians and invited foreign nationals to fight against Russia.
    • The participation of “non-state actors” in a foreign war poses serious security concerns in the longer run.
  • Impact on Global Financial Order:
    • Unilateral sanctions from West to exclude Russian economy from Global financial order run against the mandate and spirit of the international financial order set up under the World Trade Organization.
    • It will lead to fragmentation of Financial System and might give rise to a Non-Dollar based parallel financial system.
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