Facts:
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India had about 1.38 billion (138 crore) people in 2020.
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Studies estimate the country’s population to peak at 1. 5-1. 6 billion somewhere between 2040 and 2048.
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Every year since 2003 the number of live births has been falling consistently.
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Fertility rate came down to 2, well below the world average in 2019.
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It took only 14 years for the fertility rate to fall by 50% (from 3 to 2) in India, whereas in Bangladesh, a similar fall took 17 years.
Reason for these changes:
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Percentage of women marrying before the age of 18 has fallen by half in the past 15 years.
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Women participation in key family decisions have shot up from 37% to 89% in the past decade and a half.
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Urbanisation is another family size suppressor. In rural areas a child is a resource, a free labour to work on farms and tend to livestock. But in a city a child is a liability till adulthood.
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The higher cost of raising children also prevents middle and upper middle classes from having a big family.
New set of challenges that can emerge due to this declining population trend:
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Compared to other countries with the same fertility rate, India’s infant mortality rate is higher and life expectancy is lower. That means the coming fall in population could turn into a collapse.
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India is also home to the highest number of underweight and stunted children.
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The peak of India’s demographic dividend is already behind it. The prospect of India ageing before prospering to the levels of Western countries is real.
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It’s this fear that has caused China to abandon its draconian single child policy and encourage its youth to have more kids. India could be in a much worse situation than China as the productivity level in China are much higher than India.